tv The War Room With Jennifer Granholm Current August 10, 2012 9:00pm-10:00pm PDT
people who are actively using social media, are typically younger, less urban, dwellers the right is trying to go after the tweeters. and then there's the twindex. that's a joint group that mow -- measures the national political tweet. but can it capture the sentiments of likely voters? that's the $64,000 question. and joining us from washington, d.c. to guide us through the world of political tweeting is adam sharp. adam is the senior manager for government, news and social innovation at twitter. adam thank you for joining us inside "the war room."
>> thank you governor. happy to be here. >> jennifer: glad to have you. i'm standing in front of the twindex website. the first part has the candidates profiles and aggregate numbers. what -- what is this telling the yellow numbers? >> these numbers are measuring a daily sample of the attitudes of twitter users towards the candidates relative to everything else they are talking about in the world. a number below 50 means that tweets about that candidate are on average more negative than most tweets in the world, and numbers over 50 indicate that tweets about the candidate tend to be among the other positive tweets in the world. >> jennifer: so for example, this is live. so barack obama is at 20 and mitt romney is at 12. that means the tweets about them both are negative?
>> exactly. these numbers update once per day, so they are through last night. >> jennifer: so the 20 would suggest that the tweets about barack obama although are negative, they are not quite as bad as the 12 under mitt romney's name. >>exactly. the average tweet for president obama yesterday was slightly more positive than the average tweet for governor romney. >> jennifer: okay. the second part of the site is sort of a sentiment graph which is based upon how a tweeter feels about president obama or mitt romney. >> exactly. that chart is a measure of both values for the candidates going back to may 1st. >> jennifer: and i have may 8th up here, because it has a little bit of a down spike, but if i put to the top of the blue graph
on may 10th you see a huge spike up. something must have happened to because the twitters to have positive comments about president obama. >> it did. twitter is where people go to connect in real timethem. and on may 9th, president obama announced his support of gay marriage. and then it peaked at 74 the day after on the 10th. >> jennifer: okay. august 5th -- or august 4th there is a big bump again for the president. what is that? >> exactly. the first week of august the president steadily climbs from the 30s to a peak also in the 70s, at a time when romney stayed pretty flat. two things are actually going on here, number 1 on the obama side, the president started
exchanging tweets with members of the u.s. olympic team. he tweeted michael phelps who wrote back. he tweeted members of the women's gymnastics team and they tweeted back. and that generated a lot of conversation about the president culminating on saturday with the president's birthday, and it doesn't get a lot more positive mr. president. and most of that week romney was out of the country -- >> jennifer: and his numbers were really bad, because it was not going well for him when he was out of the country. you have all of this twitter universe, but the people who are tweeting are largely younger and probably more likely to be following or supportive of the president. so how accurate is this cluster of sentiment? >> that's something we were very careful about when we created this project, and in our partnerships you mentioned up
front, we all worked together to make sure we struck that balance. answer important thing to note here is that this isn't measuring every twitter user across the country or around the world. it is measures just those actively tweeting about politics and the candidates. we saw this, for example in the summer of 2009 when healthcare was not a top three issue in the polls, but it was the most talked-about issue on twitter, and lo and behold congress went back to their townhalls were the people showing up asking about health care. >> jennifer: okay. president obama has 18.1 million followers on twitter. just the volume on the
president's side would disproportionately favor the president, wouldn't it? >> yes, and no. we are not measuring user followers, we're measuring tweets. there was about a three to one difference of tweets toward the president as romney. narrowing. at this rate we'll be at one to one very soon. we are measuring the average tweet, so both of these sets are large enough to get a large number, and the exact volume on each side is a little bit irrelevant. when you look at president obama's numbers for example, for the last two years, we obviously can't go that far back with governor romney, but if you go back with president obama for the last two years and compare,
you'll find that this and the polls track relatively closely. so that gives us confidence that we have struck the right balance, because we are so close to methods that use different approaches. >> jennifer: interesting. adam, i'm looking at the url. it's election.twitter..com. you can also follow at gov optwiter. we'll put the numbers out every night. >> jennifer: very cool. thank you so much for joining us and explaining it all. >> you bet, governor. >> jennifer: up next an expert >>i jump out of my skin at people when i'm upset. do you share the sense of outrage that they're doing this, this corruption based on corruption based on corruption. >>i think that's an understatement, eliot. u>> i'm not prone tot.
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♪ >> jennifer: much is being made of the power of the latino vote this campaign, it is the focus ads, and grassroots out reach, but a closer look at swing states shows how critical the latino constituency could be. let's take a look at three states that swung back to the democrat's win column four years ago. florida has 29 electoral votes. latino make up 23% of the population. president obama received more than two-thirds of the latino
vote in 2008. in colorado president obama spent the last two days courting its nine electoral votes, and there latinos make up 21% of the population. in 2008, 61% of the latino community -- voters there supported president obama. mccain only got 38%. and latinos are going to play a key role in deciding nevada's six electoral votes. mitt romney is going to have to really work hard to chip in to this vote from the latino's four years ago. now let's take a look at the latino vote. we have a wonderful person who has come inside "the war room" to talk to us about the dynamics of the latino community, and
that is matt barreto. he's the co-founder of "latino decisions," which analyzes latino public opinion. thank you so much, matt, for joining us inside "the war room." >> sure thing. my pleasure. >> jennifer: all right. in 2008, a record-breaking number of latinos showed up to the polls, but it was actually still only half of the eligible latino voters. now what are both parties doing compared to 2008 to mobilize and actually register latino voters? >> i think that's it. registration is the starting point. we have lower registration rate among eligible voters than compared to non-latinos. compared to whites and blacks so we need to put a serious emphasis on voter registration, and that includes not just the civic groups out there, but the parties, the candidates they need to help register latinos,
reach out to the community, and pass along that message that our vote is important. >> jennifer: what are the activist groups doing to make sure that for example, latino/american voting rights aren't suppressed across the country? >> that's a very good question. there have been a lot offer forts at the state legislature passing laws related to voter registration practices, voter id laws. these are disproportionately affecting latinos. there's no question about it. the empirical data and evidence is quite strong. we need to see a lot of outreach by the civic groups. we need to see the parties and the government -- the actual secretaries of state and institutions say that they care about the latino community, that they want to help pass along that information, and right now
it doesn't feel that way all the time. it seems in some states the secretary of state are more concerned about decreasing the number of people eligible to vote. >> jennifer: i certainly latinos who are eligible get mad, get to the polls and get registered. univision released data yesterday showing that mitt romney would have very low latino support at 23%. standing in front of a board now which shows that which is almost the lowst since bob dole in 1996. for example, george bush had 44%. what percentage does mitt romney need to receive in order to be competitive? and can he get it? >> yeah, because the electorate
is growing every year that number keeps moving. right now we're estimating about 40 to 44% nationally, that romney would need to be in the low 40s in order for him to stay competitive. right now as you mentioned the polling that we have done does suggest that romney is going to face one of the worst showings ever for a republican candidate if he doesn't turn that campaign around. he is a far cry away from the 40% threshold. >> jennifer: so he is going to probably put a few hispanic speakers at the convention. marco rubio, maybe, cruz maybe. do you think that would send a message that would get that's numbers up? >> that's a starting point. but latino voters are not just
looking for faces they are looking at policies. and a lot of those people are on the wrong side of the policies. but it is a starting point. i think you see -- right now the republicans have a little bit of an advantage on the elective, they have governors, u.s. senator, and the democrats need to be a little bit worried about that, they need to be cultivating and promoting more latinos within the party, and i think that's why you may be seeing castro keynoting the dnc. >> jennifer: i am excited about that. and of course via ragose is clairing the overall dnc. there is a conservative group called nevada hispanics that launched a tv ad this week in las vegas. take a look.
>> don't be fooled by president obama's words. he is not committed to immigrants, he only wants our vote. he offers a temporary solution that [ inaudible ] keep his promise to push immigration reform. >> jennifer: could efforts like that work in keeping latino voters either home or to actually vote for romney? >> i think there will be a concerted effect on the right to show obama as not living up to his promises. and people are asking a lot of questions of the president. but as these ads are raised, i think more questions will start to be raised in the latino community, and the president and
his campaign needs to make sure they counter those ads with positive messages with talking about what they have accomplished. i would expect that the president will counter those, and hopefully will counter those with a very positive message, so we don't just see so much negative campaigning. if it's just entirely negative latinos will be scratching their heads saying which party is better? >> jennifer: absolutely. you have to be an agreement, all out, defensive and offensive effort. thank you so much. that's matt barreto. and up next we have brett ehrlich. start you morning with a daily dose of politics from a fresh perspective. >>i'm a slutty bob hope. the troops love me.
♪ >> jennifer: it's friday and that means it's time for brett ehrlich to put on his sleuth slayer outfit and peer into the political future. so shhhh, brett's talking now. >> the movie total recall is in theaters, it's a movie about the future that is a remake of a past movie that is out i want to talk about the future now, so i recorded this earlier. it's this week/next week. [♪ dramatic music ♪] >> this week romney's horse rafalca failed to qualify for the olympic dressage finals.
oh no. next week as pun fishment rafalca will be forced to fly home in a small compartment on the roof of the romney jet. [♪ dramatic music ♪] >> this week to seem like a regular guy, mitt romney went out to buy some groceries. next week, he'll say, wait a minute i have to shop again for groceries. guys are so poor. [♪ dramatic music ♪] >> this week when asked what he bought at a hardware store, mitt romney said this. >> hardware stuff. [ laughter ] >> next week we'll go to bed bath and beyond and when asked what he bought he'll say, bath stuff, bed stuff, bee i don't
know -- beyonce. i don't know. ♪ >> jennifer: ip next, the summer olympics comes to a close this weekend and as usual they are reminded us about things that go >>i jump out of my skin at people when i'm upset. do you share the sense of outrage that they're doing this, this corruption based on corruption based on corruption. >>i think that's an understatement, eliot. u>> i'm not prone tot. understatement, so explain to me why that is. i think the mob learned from wall st., not vice versa.
?ñ?ñ1c right by those who gave their lives to for this country nearly 70 years ago. ♪ >> jennifer: now to my point. i'm sure that the only one who has been riveted by the olympics games, of course which end this weekend. and at a time when we are tearing each other to shreds here in the political arena, it is so inspiring to watch the
heroic battles in the sporting arena. the olympics lets us trade in attack ads and poll data for attacking midfielders and poll vaulters. we trade in surrogates and campaigns for athletes and champions. there were so many fantastic moments. i -- actually we -- we all loved watching the reaction of parents as their once little baby's tumbled and twirls and swam and sprinted their way to glory. i can only imagine the sacrifices that those parents have made to help their kids chase their dreams to that very moment. a parent would do anything to help their child scale mountains, and here they were at the summit. bill gates travels to the games just to watch a particular 16 year old play table tennis. barack obama tweets congrats to
our gymnastics teams, gabby douglas wins the gold. young people becoming stars not because they have a show on mtv or have a rich parent, but because they are worked really, really hard to achieve a long-term goal. it was great to meet heros of countries that many of us have never even heard of. we're one global nation of people, and we felt for those competitors who were injured or knocked off of their path or based adversity, but still managed to finish their race. and of course there was monta you mitchell an american sprinter who broke his leg yesterday in the middle of race. it wasn't just him racing. he was the first leg of the 4 by 400 men's relay team. he broke his leg halfway through. and he had a choice, give in to
the pain, pain which would cripple most of us or fight through for his team and his country, and he ran that final 200 feeters on that broken leg, and his team our team advanced to the next round, and as he said, he carried the country, the u.s. on his back for 45 seconds. he deserves a gold medal in courage. the olympics gives us a chance to be unabashedly, unhis taintingly patriotic. this is the pure raw, powerful patriotism of a nation coming together to support individuals in the pursuit of a collective goal. and what is more patriotic and american than that. we are a nation of individual@@ achievement, yes. and we are all part of team usa. it doe